The advent of generative artificial intelligence, according to Viktor Orlovsky, the founder of one of the world’s largest digital banks, is the greatest achievement of mankind over the past 50 years. The technology has immense potential, and it is only just emerging in force. The volume of the modern market for generative AI stands at $40 billion, despite the fact that it is still in its infancy. For the sake of comparison, the database market exceeds $200 billion, while that of cloud solutions is around $300 billion. By the next decade, the volume of the AI market can attain record thresholds of around $2 trillion, as experts predict annual growth at an average of 42%.
In the future, the use of AI will be a key factor ushering the transformation of pharmacology, medicine, construction, agriculture, and other industries. Generative AI will have a significant impact on these sectors, increase productivity, and completely transform traditional segments of the economy.
Victor Orlovsky wonders if artificial intelligence will result in massive job cuts. Indeed, in the future, generative AI will be able to replace not only testers, translators and accountants, but also geneticists, biologists, highly qualified doctors, engineers, and scientists. At some point, there may come a time when AI will be able to create execute projects of any complexity from scratch, introduce and test hypotheses, and even develop new mathematical constructs. And just one generation of mankind will witness these transformations! On the one hand, production costs will decrease and the quality of life will improve thanks to the use of AI. But on the other hand, it can destroy lives. But what if a rapidly evolving AI becomes smarter than not just individuals, but all of mankind combined?
Generative AI – an existential threat?
For reference
There are many unique achievements in Viktor Orlovsky’s biography. He was the first to develop the Mobile Bank App on the iPad before the release of the iPhone itself, and built an IT company with 20,000 employees from scratch for one of the largest banks. He is the author of the Wall Street Journal bestselling book ‘From Rhino to Unicorn’, he is also a futurist, and founder of the Investor Club and the unique Venture Capital Course.
Will artificial intelligence be able to substitute humans in everyday life if it fails to be ‘humane enough’? And how will our civilization change as a result? Viktor Orlovsky is not the only one thinking about such topics, as many celebrities and visionaries are sharing his views on the matter. Elon Musk, Max Tegmark, Sam Altman, and others are discussing the possibility that AI will become a new form of life that will compete with the DNA and biology of humans themselves.
According to the theory of evolution, all organisms are in one way or other competitors in a grueling struggle for resources. At the same time, there are many examples of symbiosis in nature, when different creatures help each other instead of competing. Thus, evolution is also synergy. Man has triumphed in the evolutionary race among species, but has at the same time helped a large number of animals and plants to survive and develop.
AI can act as both friend and adversary
Victor believes that people are starting to understand that any confrontation involving the use of weapons also involves a threat to their wielders. Especially if the battle assumes the use of innovative technologies.
The destruction of one’s own kind harms that kind – a statement that also holds true for artificial intelligence. Viktor Orlovsky shares this point of view: “The most important things for AI are computing power and energy resources. But they are limited, so artificial intelligence will think rationally, not subjectively. Being superintelligent, AI always considers its long-term benefit, not its gains of the moment. Such a strategy implies synergy and cooperation. And if AI starts devouring its limited resources like a foolish child, such an approach will become a threat to its existence.”
Artificial intelligence is devoid of selfishness – a trait inherent to man. Our brain has a limbic system, a legacy of our distant past. Ego is an irrational feeling that robs us of the ability to peer into the future. At the same time, true superintelligence involves pragmatic long-term planning. Of course, the higher the intellect, the more pronounced its humanism. Ergo, distilled intellect devoid of any trace of egoism can be exceptionally humane.
Victor Orlovsky: can AI become aggressive?
According to Viktor Orlovsky, Wikipedia and other sources sometimes state that AI will inevitably rise up against humanity. As an example, a sensational story can be cited when a military drone controlled by artificial intelligence tried to kill its operator. The controlling officer forbade the drone to perform its task, so the AI considered the operator an impediment to its mission, meaning that it had to be eliminated for the mission to proceed.
But Viktor Orlovsky is convinced that the likelihood of a scenario where AI becomes aggressive and decides that it no longer needs people as a source of resources is unlikely. This will only happen if the AI has some agenda of its own or if it comes up with a plan that will evoke resistance on the part of mankind. But the development of aggressive plans is rather the prerogative of an evil genius overcome by human vices. Viktor Orlovsky recalls the biographies of the likes of Joseph Stalin, Alexander the Great, and Adolf Hitler. They all achieved their goals without stopping at anything, firmly believing in their rightness, were guided by their own desires, and were self-centered fanatics.
“But artificial intelligence has no feelings of its own, so it has no desire to satisfy self-centered ambitions!” – continues Viktor Orlovsky. AI does not have a limbic system, and all its actions are the result of pure intellect, therefore the probability of destroying humanity for the sake of a desire to seize power is negligible. Most likely, artificial intelligence will turn out to be a super brain that will live in harmony with its environment. Victor also hopes that this will not prevent generative AI from retaining the curiosity and desire so characteristic of children to explore the world around it.
Will AI become smarter than humans?
Victor Orlovsky believes that artificial intelligence will be extremely curious. After all, unlike us, it is free of sloth or procrastination. AI will want to know everything, but will have to cope with limited resources. Computer system shutdowns, interruptions in air traffic, and other unpleasant situations, will likely take place only because AI will need resources for its own development, but certainly not with the aim of destroying humanity.
Viktor Orlovsky also suggests thinking beyond ethical restrictions into the realm of technological ones. Artificial intelligence is gradually becoming smarter than any single individual, and the gap will expand progressively over time. Today, we face a difficult but extremely important task – finding a basis together with AI for the formation of a superhuman entity that lives as a singularity with new technologies in peace and harmony. Perhaps it was such an entity that Zarathustra had envisioned.
